One of Mr. Henry Paulson's predecessors was Andrew W. Mellon, US Treasury Secretary under Calvin Coolidge. In the summer months of 1928 the stock market briefly swooned, and as the presidential election approached there was concern that a victory by Al Smith, Democratic governor of NY, and a Democratic congress would lead to a real swoon.
Mr. Mellon addressed these concerns in September, 1928, as Galbraith writes:
Andrew W. Mellon said,"There is no cause for worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue."
Mr. Mellon did not know. Neither did any of the other public figures who then, as since, made similar statements. These are not forecasts; it is not supposed that the men who make them are privileged to look farther into the future than the rest. Mr. Mellon was participating in a ritual which, in our society, is thought to be of great value for influencing the course of the business cycle. By affirming solemnly that prosperity will continue, it is believed, one can help insure that prosperity will in fact continue. Especially among businessmen the faith in the efficiency of such incantation is very great.
Gentlemutt: Who engaged in such marvelous incantations during the time leading up to the Panic of 2008? Or more accurately, who is your favorite candidate for the Andrew Mellon 'no-worries' prize? We know from experience our government leaders are so prone to this behavior that nowadays it hardly seems fair to poke fun at them for merely going through the motions and playing their required role. On the other hand, for a few weeks in autumn 2008 there was a fun video clip on youtube that certainly brought to mind a few deserving candidates, including Ben Stein. These people actually get paid by, heh, heh, the forces of the free markets to charm us, so surely they are most deserving of the 'no-worries' prize.
NB: The youtube clip of Peter Schiff versus Stein et al has apparently been taken down, evidence of the ephemera of the internet when the lawyers or censors get involved -- or just the ephemera of the internet, for that matter. Presumably the attorneys for one of the networks or for one of the now-embarrassed 'chanters' have forced the removal of this educational gem. This is a pity, since we all, yours truly most of all, surely need vivid and recent reminders of the dangers of public pontificating.
Monday, November 17, 2008
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